Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints28
- Klay ThompsonAssists4
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds13
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints40
- Jalen DurenAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–117
- Q420.2Kylor Kelley makes 1-foot dunk (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)102–117
- Q436.1Dante Exum defensive rebound100–117
- Q438.0Paul Reed misses 3-foot two point shot100–117
- Q443.1Paul Reed offensive rebound100–117
- Q445.1Ronald Holland II misses 15-foot pullup jump shot100–117
- Q41:05Ronald Holland II defensive rebound100–117
- Q41:08Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses two point shot100–117
- Q41:14Jaden Hardy defensive rebound100–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:56Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)DAL 63 – 64 DET · DAL 40% → 48% +9DAL 40% → 48%+9 pts
- Q39:24Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 63 – 69 DET · DET 58% → 67% +9DET 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q37:20Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point shot (Daniel Gafford assists)DAL 70 – 73 DET · DAL 32% → 42% +9DAL 32% → 42%+9 pts
- Q410:46P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 90 – 93 DET · DAL 26% → 38% +12DAL 26% → 38%+12 pts
- Q49:40Ronald Holland II makes 2-foot driving dunkDAL 91 – 95 DET · DET 58% → 67% +9DET 58% → 67%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DAL -120 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1.5
- DAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 55.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.5 – 114.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +23 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +37 Elo | DAL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 111.916th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 113.517th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −1.619th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 110.020th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.614th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 10–1121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–24 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.