Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints25
- P.J. WashingtonAssists8
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds14
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints32
- CJ McCollumAssists8
- Yves MissiRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–136
- Q40.0CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)137–136
- Q41.2Pelicans Full timeout137–133
- Q41.2Pelicans offensive team rebound137–133
- Q42.1CJ McCollum misses 21-foot step back jumpshot137–133
- Q411.1Kessler Edwards enters the game for Klay Thompson137–133
- Q411.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie137–133
- Q411.1CJ McCollum enters the game for Yves Missi137–133
- Q411.1Jose Alvarado enters the game for Javonte Green137–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:29Jose Alvarado makes 22-foot three point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)DAL 100 – 101 NO · NO 41% → 54% +13NO 41% → 54%+13 pts
- Q49:50Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three pointer (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 103 – 101 NO · DAL 45% → 59% +14DAL 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q48:53P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 109 – 105 NO · DAL 55% → 69% +14DAL 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q48:20Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three pointer (Daniel Gafford assists)DAL 112 – 105 NO · DAL 69% → 81% +12DAL 69% → 81%+12 pts
- Q43:16P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 125 – 119 NO · DAL 73% → 88% +16DAL 73% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DAL -110 / NO -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- NO 34%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.7 pts
- NO: Elo 34.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NO -100
- DAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.0 – 115.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | +21 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +113 Elo | DAL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 109.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 117.726th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −8.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 107.426th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 115.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 8–1626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–23 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–3 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.