Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints22
- Nikola VucevicAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists15
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–127
- Q47.1Malik Beasley out of bounds bad pass turnover119–127
- Q414.1Matas Buzelis makes two point shot119–127
- Q418.1Matas Buzelis defensive rebound117–127
- Q422.0Marcus Sasser misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot117–127
- Q442.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound117–127
- Q445.1Chris Duarte misses 26-foot three point shot117–127
- Q450.1Bulls defensive team rebound117–127
- Q452.1Malik Beasley misses 23-foot three point jumper117–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:17Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)CHI 39 – 38 DET · DET 55% → 62% +7DET 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q39:41Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 65 – 68 DET · CHI 22% → 30% +8CHI 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q38:53Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 68 – 70 DET · CHI 25% → 33% +8CHI 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q33:24Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 82 – 86 DET · CHI 19% → 27% +8CHI 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q33:04Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three pointer (Malik Beasley assists)CHI 82 – 89 DET · DET 73% → 81% +8DET 73% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML CHI +190 / DET -230
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5
- DET 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- DET: Elo 69.3%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -202
- CHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.0 – 119.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +22 | CHI: Missing Talen Horton-Tucker −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +142 Elo | DET 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 112.017th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 113.217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.3 | Margin | −1.219th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 110.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 111.413th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.8 | Pace | 100.718th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 11–1120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−31 Elo- Talen Horton-Tucker sore left leg−1 Elo
Pistons
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–25 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 18–17 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.