San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints24
- De'Aaron FoxAssists13
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints32
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–125
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound126–125
- Q40.1Trae Young misses 44-foot three point pullup jump shot126–125
- Q41.0Vit Krejci defensive rebound126–125
- Q42.2Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2126–125
- Q42.2Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2126–125
- Q42.2Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Harrison Barnes125–125
- Q42.2(00:02.9) [Hawks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Hawks] charged with a timeout125–125
- Q42.2Hawks Full timeout125–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:49De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)SA 123 – 121 ATL · ATL 8% → 28% +20ATL 8% → 28%+20 pts
- Q448.2Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2SA 123 – 123 ATL · ATL 33% → 49% +16ATL 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q430.1Victor Wembanyama makes dunkSA 125 – 123 ATL · SA 51% → 85% +34SA 51% → 85%+34 pts
- Q48.1Trae Young makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotSA 125 – 125 ATL · ATL 2% → 49% +47ATL 2% → 49%+47 pts
- Q42.2Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2SA 126 – 125 ATL · SA 50% → 97% +47SA 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML SA -175 / ATL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1.5
- SA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SA: Elo 55.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -159
- ATL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 124.0 – 119.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | −27 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +41 Elo | SA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 115.99th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 119.028th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −3.121st of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 109.622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 105.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–13 | Road vs home | 11–1120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–24 | 22–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 15–17 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.