Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints19
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists11
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds10
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints25
- Ben SimmonsAssists6
- Keon JohnsonRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–102
- Q42.1shot clock turnover119–102
- Q424.1Bub Carrington defensive rebound119–102
- Q428.0Keon Johnson misses 22-foot three point jumper119–102
- Q434.1Tosan Evbuomwan defensive rebound119–102
- Q438.1Justin Champagnie misses 26-foot three point jumper119–102
- Q459.0Keon Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)119–102
- Q41:09Tosan Evbuomwan offensive rebound119–99
- Q41:11Tyrese Martin misses 27-foot three point jumper119–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:49Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 61 – 58 BKN · WSH 38% → 47% +8WSH 38% → 47%+8 pts
- Q310:52Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)WSH 65 – 66 BKN · BKN 55% → 64% +9BKN 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q37:18Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 72 – 66 BKN · WSH 50% → 59% +10WSH 50% → 59%+10 pts
- Q36:15Kyshawn George makes 28-foot three pointer (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 75 – 66 BKN · WSH 60% → 69% +9WSH 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q31:57Tristan Vukcevic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 85 – 72 BKN · WSH 77% → 85% +8WSH 77% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -5.5
- ML WSH +180 / BKN -220
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -5.5
- BKN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- BKN: Elo 71.4%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- BKN -192
- WSH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 105.5 – 111.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1284 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −43 | −17 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +159 Elo | BKN 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.3 | Points scored | 105.429th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 112.113th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.4 | Margin | −6.727th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.4 | Offense rating | 107.227th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 114.024th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.4 | Pace | 97.630th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–21 | Road vs home | 6–1628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–29 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 20–29 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25 | 22–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.