Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints24
- Amen ThompsonAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds20
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints22
- D'Angelo RussellAssists5
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–99
- Q40.1Rockets offensive team rebound97–99
- Q40.1Jalen Green misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot97–99
- Q43.1Reed Sheppard enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate97–99
- Q43.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Aaron Holiday97–99
- Q43.1Tyrese Martin enters the game for D'Angelo Russell97–99
- Q43.1Rockets Full timeout97–99
- Q43.1D'Angelo Russell makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)97–99
- Q43.1Amen Thompson bad pass (Tosan Evbuomwan steals)97–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:11Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 80 – 82 BKN · HOU 35% → 51% +16HOU 35% → 51%+16 pts
- Q43:55Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 87 – 88 BKN · HOU 30% → 51% +21HOU 30% → 51%+21 pts
- Q43:23Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot hook shotHOU 89 – 88 BKN · HOU 50% → 65% +15HOU 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q447.1Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)HOU 92 – 91 BKN · BKN 4% → 31% +27BKN 4% → 31%+27 pts
- Q43.1D'Angelo Russell makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)HOU 97 – 99 BKN · BKN 5% → >99% +95BKN 5% → >99%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML HOU -400 / BKN +315
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.0%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -332
- BKN +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.0 – 102.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | −38 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −15, Fred VanVleet −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +123 Elo | HOU 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 74.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 105.529th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 112.414th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | −6.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 107.327th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 114.225th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.0 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–8 | Road vs home | 5–1628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+7 Elo- Tari Eason lower leg−15 Elo
- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−10 Elo
Nets
−38 Elo- Cam Thomas strained left hamstring−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–20 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22 | 22–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.