Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints45
- Jordan PooleAssists5
- Richaun HolmesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–124
- Q48.1Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound134–124
- Q410.1Bilal Coulibaly misses 22-foot three point jumper134–124
- Q419.1Kyshawn George defensive rebound134–124
- Q419.1Emoni Bates misses 27-foot three point jumper134–124
- Q435.1Bilal Coulibaly makes 1-foot dunk (AJ Johnson assists)134–124
- Q439.0Ty Jerome bad pass (Tristan Vukcevic steals)134–122
- Q455.1Bub Carrington makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tristan Vukcevic assists)134–122
- Q41:03Jaylon Tyson makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot (Emoni Bates assists)134–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:29Ty Jerome makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 79 – 77 WSH · CLE 79% → 86% +6CLE 79% → 86%+6 pts
- Q32:27Tristan Vukcevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)CLE 83 – 86 WSH · WSH 21% → 30% +9WSH 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q359.1Jaylon Tyson makes layupCLE 88 – 88 WSH · CLE 71% → 77% +6CLE 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q343.1Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 89 – 91 WSH · WSH 20% → 29% +9WSH 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q335.1Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 92 – 91 WSH · CLE 70% → 80% +10CLE 70% → 80%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -17.5
- ML CLE -3000 / WSH +1200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -15
- CLE 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 92.1%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -1258
- WSH +1258 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 127.5 – 110.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1308 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +88 | −38 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Khris Middleton −36, Malcolm Brogdon −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +426 Elo | CLE 92.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 91.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 91.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.2 | Points scored | 107.527th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 121.330th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.3 | Margin | −13.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 103.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 117.230th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.24th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–6 | Road vs home | 5–1930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−38 Elo- Khris Middleton rest−36 Elo
- Malcolm Brogdon plantar fasciitis−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–18 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–16 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders | 33–18 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–0 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.