Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints30
- Evan MobleyAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints38
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–115
- Q40.0(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)118–115
- Q40.0Darius Garland makes 31-foot three pointer118–115
- Q45.0Cade Cunningham makes free throw 3 of 3115–115
- Q45.0Ausar Thompson enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.115–114
- Q45.0Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 3115–114
- Q45.0Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 3115–113
- Q45.0Evan Mobley shooting foul115–112
- Q46.0Marcus Sasser enters the game for Ausar Thompson115–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:49Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)CLE 98 – 92 DET · CLE 69% → 82% +13CLE 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q44:35Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 103 – 97 DET · CLE 72% → 86% +14CLE 72% → 86%+14 pts
- Q47.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 3 of 3CLE 113 – 112 DET · DET 2% → 14% +13DET 2% → 14%+13 pts
- Q45.0Cade Cunningham makes free throw 3 of 3CLE 115 – 115 DET · DET 10% → 50% +39DET 10% → 50%+39 pts
- Q40.0Darius Garland makes 31-foot three pointerCLE 118 – 115 DET · CLE 53% → 100% +47CLE 53% → 100%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML CLE -165 / DET +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -149
- DET +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.0 – 115.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | +29 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +67 Elo | CLE 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.3 | Points scored | 112.715th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 113.717th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.5 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.4 | Offense rating | 110.718th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–6 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–17 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–15 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 33–17 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–0 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.