Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints22
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints31
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–105
- Q42.1Al Horford defensive rebound112–105
- Q44.1Donovan Mitchell misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot112–105
- Q412.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2112–105
- Q412.1Al Horford enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis111–105
- Q412.1Jarrett Allen enters the game for Sam Merrill111–105
- Q412.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2111–105
- Q412.1Sam Merrill personal foul110–105
- Q412.1Jrue Holiday defensive rebound110–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:19Payton Pritchard makes 30-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 69 – 60 CLE · BOS 69% → 77% +9BOS 69% → 77%+9 pts
- Q33:21Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 76 – 67 CLE · BOS 70% → 79% +9BOS 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q45:30Donovan Mitchell makes driving layupBOS 99 – 94 CLE · CLE 14% → 23% +8CLE 14% → 23%+8 pts
- Q44:13Derrick White makes 18-foot pullup jump shotBOS 101 – 95 CLE · BOS 75% → 85% +10BOS 75% → 85%+10 pts
- Q43:29Derrick White makes 30-foot three pointer (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 104 – 95 CLE · BOS 87% → 96% +8BOS 87% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML BOS +100 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.5 – 119.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +58 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +107 Elo | CLE 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 122.62nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 111.810th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.8 | Margin | +10.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 120.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 110.08th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.66th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–6 | Road vs home | 24–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–30 | 33–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 30–14 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–3 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 1BOS 111 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 53%Hit
- Nov 19CLE 117 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 70%Hit
- May 15CLE 98 @ BOS 113PlayoffsPicked BOS 83%Hit
- May 13BOS 109 @ CLE 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 74%Hit
- May 11BOS 106 @ CLE 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 9CLE 118 @ BOS 94PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- May 7CLE 95 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Mar 5BOS 104 @ CLE 105Picked BOS 64%Miss