Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints35
- Jayson TatumAssists11
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints34
- Ricky Council IVAssists8
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–110
- Q41.1Justin Edwards offensive rebound118–110
- Q41.1Kristaps Porzingis blocks Justin Edwards 's 26-foot three point pullup jump shot118–110
- Q410.2Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound118–110
- Q412.2Kristaps Porzingis misses tip shot118–110
- Q413.2Kristaps Porzingis offensive rebound118–110
- Q415.1Jrue Holiday misses 26-foot three point jumper118–110
- Q435.1Celtics defensive team rebound118–110
- Q435.1Tyrese Maxey misses two point shot118–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:29Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 98 – 100 PHI · BOS 39% → 54% +16BOS 39% → 54%+16 pts
- Q46:51Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 101 – 100 PHI · BOS 53% → 69% +16BOS 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q44:29Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 108 – 104 PHI · BOS 68% → 83% +16BOS 68% → 83%+16 pts
- Q43:06Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BOS 110 – 109 PHI · PHI 14% → 33% +18PHI 14% → 33%+18 pts
- Q42:12Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 113 – 109 PHI · BOS 67% → 88% +21BOS 67% → 88%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML BOS -700 / PHI +450
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.5%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -481
- PHI +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.5 – 106.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −43 | BOS: Missing Payton Pritchard −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +135 Elo | BOS 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 109.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 112.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.8 | Margin | −3.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 110.021st of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 113.522nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–6 | Road vs home | 9–1424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+7 Elo- Payton Pritchard illness−3 Elo
76ers
−43 Elo- Andre Drummond left toe−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–29 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.