Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints28
- Jayson TatumAssists10
- Jaylen BrownRebounds6
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints40
- Jose AlvaradoAssists6
- Yves MissiRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–116
- Q40.0Luke Kornet enters the game for Derrick White118–116
- Q40.0Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Jaylen Brown118–116
- Q40.0Brandon Boston enters the game for Yves Missi118–116
- Q40.0Pelicans Full timeout118–116
- Q40.1Jayson Tatum makes 20-foot pullup jump shot118–116
- Q424.0CJ McCollum makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot116–116
- Q433.2Al Horford enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis116–114
- Q433.2Pelicans Full timeout116–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:06Derrick White makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 111 – 106 NO · BOS 74% → 87% +13BOS 74% → 87%+13 pts
- Q41:37Trey Murphy III makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotBOS 114 – 114 NO · NO 23% → 43% +20NO 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q434.0Jaylen Brown makes 13-foot two point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 116 – 114 NO · BOS 54% → 86% +31BOS 54% → 86%+31 pts
- Q424.0CJ McCollum makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotBOS 116 – 116 NO · NO 11% → 46% +36NO 11% → 46%+36 pts
- Q40.1Jayson Tatum makes 20-foot pullup jump shotBOS 118 – 116 NO · BOS 50% → 100% +50BOS 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML BOS -750 / NO +475
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 78.8%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -507
- NO +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.0 – 109.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1619 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −21 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +228 Elo | BOS 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 83.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 109.724th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.3 | Points allowed | 118.126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.0 | Margin | −8.529th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 107.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 116.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–6 | Road vs home | 8–1726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–28 | 20–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–26 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 15–20 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.