Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Jaden HardyPoints21
- Olivier-Maxence ProsperAssists4
- Kylor KelleyRebounds11
Cavaliers- Sam MerrillPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–144
- Q42.1shot clock turnover101–144
- Q426.2Brandon Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)101–144
- Q429.1Ty Jerome bad pass (Olivier-Maxence Prosper steals)98–144
- Q430.1Ty Jerome offensive rebound98–144
- Q435.0Tristan Thompson misses 26-foot three point jumper98–144
- Q457.1Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound98–144
- Q41:01Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 23-foot three point jumper98–144
- Q41:06Kylor Kelley offensive rebound98–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:42Dante Exum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)DAL 3 – 4 CLE · DAL 8% → 11% +3DAL 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q19:43Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 6-foot two point shotDAL 5 – 6 CLE · DAL 9% → 11% +2DAL 9% → 11%+2 pts
- Q19:25Darius Garland makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 5 – 9 CLE · CLE 89% → 92% +3CLE 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q18:40Darius Garland makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 7 – 12 CLE · CLE 90% → 92% +3CLE 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q18:19Darius Garland makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)DAL 7 – 15 CLE · CLE 92% → 94% +2CLE 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -15.5
- ML DAL +750 / CLE -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -10
- CLE 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 82.9%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -785
- DAL +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.0 – 125.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1643 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −98 | +61 | DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −43, P.J. Washington −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +275 Elo | CLE 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 122.22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +10.22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 120.41st of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 110.49th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 23–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−98 Elo- Daniel Gafford sore left ankle−43 Elo
- P.J. Washington sore right knee−1 Elo
Cavaliers
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–25 | 32–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 29–14 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–3 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.