San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints33
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Franz WagnerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–112
- Q42.0Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound111–112
- Q42.0Victor Wembanyama misses 20-foot two point shot111–112
- Q412.0Anthony Black personal foul111–112
- Q424.1Chris Paul enters the game for Stephon Castle111–112
- Q424.1Spurs Full timeout111–112
- Q425.1Paolo Banchero makes 15-foot two point shot111–112
- Q430.1Magic Full timeout111–110
- Q430.1Franz Wagner offensive rebound111–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:17Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 105 – 102 ORL · SA 48% → 69% +20SA 48% → 69%+20 pts
- Q42:01Jonathan Isaac makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)SA 109 – 108 ORL · ORL 16% → 41% +25ORL 16% → 41%+25 pts
- Q41:26Paolo Banchero makes 16-foot pullup jump shotSA 109 – 110 ORL · ORL 39% → 63% +24ORL 39% → 63%+24 pts
- Q41:14Victor Wembanyama makes 20-foot jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 111 – 110 ORL · SA 36% → 62% +25SA 36% → 62%+25 pts
- Q425.1Paolo Banchero makes 15-foot two point shotSA 111 – 112 ORL · ORL 29% → 72% +42ORL 29% → 72%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML SA +115 / ORL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- ORL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 47.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -124
- SA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 107.5 – 110.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +64 | −3 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | ORL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +21 Elo | SA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 103.830th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 105.62nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −1.720th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 105.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.2 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–14 | Road vs home | 15–912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–26 | 26–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 17–12 |
| Underdog | 15–17 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22 | 21–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.