Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Wendell Carter Jr.Points19
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points30
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–112
- Q43.1Jalen Pickett defensive rebound90–112
- Q44.1Trevelin Queen misses 31-foot three point jumper90–112
- Q49.1shot clock turnover90–112
- Q434.1Jett Howard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trevelin Queen assists)90–112
- Q442.1Tristan da Silva defensive rebound87–112
- Q445.1Hunter Tyson misses 27-foot three point jumper87–112
- Q451.1Spencer Jones offensive rebound87–112
- Q453.1Hunter Tyson misses 27-foot three point jumper87–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:04Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 17 – 12 DEN · ORL 38% → 44% +7ORL 38% → 44%+7 pts
- Q11:14Jalen Pickett makes 25-foot three point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)ORL 21 – 23 DEN · DEN 63% → 70% +6DEN 63% → 70%+6 pts
- Q136.0Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointerORL 24 – 23 DEN · ORL 30% → 37% +7ORL 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q29:54Zeke Nnaji makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)ORL 28 – 30 DEN · DEN 63% → 69% +7DEN 63% → 69%+7 pts
- Q26:05Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)ORL 33 – 39 DEN · DEN 71% → 77% +6DEN 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML ORL +195 / DEN -240
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 76.7%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -208
- ORL +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.0 – 111.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DEN and ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | +20 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +207 Elo | DEN 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.1 | Points scored | 121.03rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 116.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +4.66th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.0 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 113.121st of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 102.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 16–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–26 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–12 | 18–20 |
| Underdog | 9–14 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–31 | 31–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–1 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.