New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints41
- CJ McCollumAssists5
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds11
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points36
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–125
- Q46.1shot clock turnover113–125
- Q430.1CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2113–125
- Q430.1CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2112–125
- Q430.1Jamal Murray shooting foul111–125
- Q437.1Jamal Murray makes 16-foot step back jumpshot111–125
- Q453.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2111–123
- Q453.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2110–123
- Q453.0Zeke Nnaji shooting foul109–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:24Javonte Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 6 – 3 DEN · NO 23% → 28% +5NO 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q14:03Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karlo Matkovic assists)NO 18 – 19 DEN · NO 18% → 23% +5NO 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q13:32Trey Murphy III makes 28-foot three point jumper (Karlo Matkovic assists)NO 21 – 21 DEN · NO 20% → 25% +5NO 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q411:30Julian Strawther makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotNO 85 – 96 DEN · DEN 89% → 94% +5DEN 89% → 94%+5 pts
- Q49:15CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 91 – 99 DEN · NO 5% → 10% +5NO 5% → 10%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML NO +320 / DEN -415
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9.5
- DEN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 82.2%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -338
- NO +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 116.0 – 125.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +31 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +266 Elo | DEN 82.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 120.53rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 116.525th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.3 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 116.84th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.25th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–19 | Road vs home | 14–811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–28 | 23–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 16–20 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 28–21 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–3 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.