Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints31
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints21
- Devin CarterAssists4
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–111
- Q48.2Isaac Jones makes 4-foot layup (Colby Jones assists)130–111
- Q419.1shot clock turnover130–109
- Q443.1Mason Jones makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaac Jones assists)130–109
- Q445.1Isaac Jones offensive rebound130–106
- Q445.1Mason Jones misses 27-foot three point jumper130–106
- Q447.1Mason Jones offensive rebound130–106
- Q450.1Colby Jones misses 25-foot three point jumper130–106
- Q41:02Tristan da Silva makes 13-foot two point shot130–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:02Malik Monk makes 22-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)ORL 50 – 48 SAC · SAC 44% → 52% +8SAC 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q24:48DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point shot (Malik Monk assists)ORL 51 – 51 SAC · SAC 50% → 58% +8SAC 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q22:50Paolo Banchero makes 27-foot three pointerORL 56 – 56 SAC · ORL 35% → 43% +8ORL 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q311:22Cole Anthony makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 65 – 60 SAC · ORL 49% → 58% +9ORL 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q310:38Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 70 – 60 SAC · ORL 64% → 72% +8ORL 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML ORL +140 / SAC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4.5
- SAC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.9 pts
- SAC: Elo 67.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -149
- ORL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 107.5 – 111.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +1 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +129 Elo | SAC 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30103.6 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Points allowed | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.212th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 113.79th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 112.517th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.48th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 13–1217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–26 | 20–29 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–12 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 8–14 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–31 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 0–2 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.