Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints33
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints30
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–114
- Q40.0(00:00) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)116–114
- Q40.1Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointer116–114
- Q45.0Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 2 of 2116–111
- Q45.0Keon Ellis enters the game for Trey Lyles115–111
- Q45.0Naz Reid enters the game for Jaylen Clark115–111
- Q45.0Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 1 of 2115–111
- Q45.0Jaylen Clark personal take foul114–111
- Q46.0Trey Lyles enters the game for Keon Ellis114–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:17Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)SAC 90 – 91 MIN · MIN 47% → 60% +13MIN 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q49:54Keon Ellis makes 24-foot three pointer (Trey Lyles assists)SAC 93 – 91 MIN · SAC 40% → 53% +14SAC 40% → 53%+14 pts
- Q41:50Mike Conley makes driving layup (Naz Reid assists)SAC 104 – 101 MIN · MIN 10% → 23% +13MIN 10% → 23%+13 pts
- Q430.0DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotSAC 110 – 106 MIN · SAC 84% → 98% +14SAC 84% → 98%+14 pts
- Q49.1Mike Conley makes 23-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)SAC 112 – 111 MIN · MIN <1% → 18% +18MIN <1% → 18%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML SAC +160 / MIN -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 70.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- SAC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 108.5 – 113.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | −16 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +152 Elo | MIN 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 111.021st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 107.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +3.18th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 111.914th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 108.77th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 12–1116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–29 | 20–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 26–22 | 26–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.