New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints28
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists9
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds9
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points39
- Aaron GordonAssists12
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–144
- Q410.0shot clock turnover119–144
- Q434.1Karlo Matkovic makes free throw 2 of 2119–144
- Q434.1Karlo Matkovic makes free throw 1 of 2118–144
- Q434.1Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Jordan Hawkins117–144
- Q434.1Pelicans Full timeout117–144
- Q434.1PJ Hall personal foul117–144
- Q445.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound117–144
- Q447.0Spencer Jones misses 23-foot three point jumper117–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:18Julian Strawther makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)NO 44 – 45 DEN · DEN 73% → 79% +6DEN 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q27:54Karlo Matkovic makes three pointer (Antonio Reeves assists)NO 47 – 45 DEN · NO 21% → 27% +6NO 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q26:06CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointer (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 52 – 49 DEN · NO 23% → 30% +6NO 23% → 30%+6 pts
- Q24:37CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three pointer (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 55 – 53 DEN · NO 22% → 28% +6NO 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q221.0Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three pointer (Zion Williamson assists)NO 68 – 66 DEN · NO 23% → 31% +7NO 23% → 31%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML NO +425 / DEN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10.5
- DEN 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 84.0%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -455
- NO +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 114.0 – 125.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | +46 | NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +288 Elo | DEN 84.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 80.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 80.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 120.63rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 116.424th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 117.13rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 113.120th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–20 | Road vs home | 15–89th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+11 Elo- Jose Alvarado non-covid illness−1 Elo
Nuggets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–29 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 16–21 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–4 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.