San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints33
- Chris PaulAssists7
- Jeremy SochanRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists10
- Moussa DiabateRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–117
- Q40.0(00:00) [Spurs] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)116–117
- Q41.1Taj Gibson enters the game for LaMelo Ball116–117
- Q41.1Devin Vassell enters the game for Jeremy Sochan116–117
- Q41.1Moussa Diabate enters the game for Seth Curry116–117
- Q41.1Spurs Full timeout116–117
- Q41.1Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)116–117
- Q47.2Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Moussa Diabate116–114
- Q47.2Hornets Full timeout116–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:56Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 104 – 107 CHA · SA 26% → 42% +16SA 26% → 42%+16 pts
- Q44:42LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point jumper (DaQuan Jeffries assists)SA 106 – 112 CHA · CHA 61% → 78% +17CHA 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q442.1De'Aaron Fox makes two point shot (Chris Paul assists)SA 114 – 114 CHA · SA 22% → 53% +32SA 22% → 53%+32 pts
- Q48.1De'Aaron Fox makes 18-foot pullup jump shotSA 116 – 114 CHA · SA 52% → 98% +46SA 52% → 98%+46 pts
- Q41.1Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)SA 116 – 117 CHA · CHA <1% → >99% +100CHA <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -9.5
- ML SA -400 / CHA +300
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4.5
- SA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- SA: Elo 67.9%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -320
- CHA +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 120.0 – 110.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1307 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +65 | +42 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +130 Elo | SA 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 106.928th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 112.213th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −5.325th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 106.628th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–13 | Road vs home | 8–2027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–25 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 15–17 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 26–22 | 18–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–1 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.