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New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND wins series 4-2

Away

Knicks

35-18

128–115

at

Home

Pacers

29-23

NY 54%IND 46%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored NY favored132 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game128–115
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–115
  • Q46.2shot clock turnover128–115
  • Q431.1Obi Toppin makes dunk (Jarace Walker assists)128–115
  • Q437.0Jahlil Okafor defensive rebound128–113
  • Q439.1Ariel Hukporti misses driving layup128–113
  • Q452.1Obi Toppin makes 11-foot running pullup jump shot128–113
  • Q456.1Obi Toppin defensive rebound128–111
  • Q458.1Landry Shamet misses two point shot128–111
  • Q41:10Ben Sheppard makes layup (Johnny Furphy assists)128–111

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q211:05Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)NY 30 – 32 IND · NY 42% → 49% +7
  2. Q210:09Karl-Anthony Towns makes 28-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)NY 35 – 34 IND · NY 49% → 56% +7
  3. Q29:37Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three pointer (Bennedict Mathurin assists)NY 38 – 37 IND · IND 37% → 44% +7
  4. Q25:44Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)NY 49 – 47 IND · NY 51% → 59% +8
  5. Q410:43Ben Sheppard makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (T.J. McConnell assists)NY 101 – 93 IND · IND 10% → 18% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 54%

Toss-upHit
NY 54%IND 46%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
NY -2.5
ML NY -130 / IND +110
Pre-line forecast
NY 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -0.5
NY 53%
Ratings vs. market
−1.4 pts
NY: Elo 52.9%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
NY -119
IND +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 122.0 – 119.5 IND
Posted spread, posted total 241.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYINDWhy
Team rating15711565Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+12−2NY: Missing OG Anunoby −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score)
Travel—−36IND crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsNY +20 EloNY 52.9%
Market-implied ratingsNY 59.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 58.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatIND
4th of 30117.7Points scored115.711th of 30
9th of 30111.8Points allowed115.121st of 30
5th of 30+5.9Margin+0.614th of 30
2nd of 30118.7Offense rating113.88th of 30
19th of 30112.7Defense rating113.221st of 30
26th of 3098.7Pace101.113th of 30
4th of 307–3Last 107–34th of 30
4th of 3016–8Road vs home14–76th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

+12 Elo
  • OG Anunoby right foot−5 Elo

Pacers

−2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksPacers
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYIND
Against the spread26–2625–26
Last 105–55–5
Favorite24–2213–17
Underdog2–412–9
Overs–unders31–2129–22
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 5–7 IND in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.