Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints40
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Luke KornetRebounds12
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints36
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–104
- Q47.1shot clock turnover131–104
- Q429.1Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound131–104
- Q431.1Miles McBride misses two point shot131–104
- Q434.0Baylor Scheierman lost ball turnover (Miles McBride steals)131–104
- Q450.1Cameron Payne makes free throw 2 of 2131–104
- Q450.1Cameron Payne makes free throw 1 of 2131–103
- Q450.1Sam Hauser personal foul131–102
- Q459.0Sam Hauser makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Baylor Scheierman assists)131–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:21Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 5 – 0 NY · BOS 61% → 67% +6BOS 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q18:08Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 10 – 2 NY · BOS 67% → 73% +6BOS 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q36:52Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)BOS 70 – 67 NY · NY 27% → 36% +9NY 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q36:31Jayson Tatum makes 1-foot driving dunkBOS 72 – 67 NY · BOS 64% → 70% +6BOS 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q34:17Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 80 – 68 NY · BOS 82% → 88% +6BOS 82% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -2.5
- ML BOS -150 / NY +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- BOS 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 42.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- NY +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.5 – 114.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +27 | BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +56 Elo | NY 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 117.94th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 111.48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.5 | Margin | +6.55th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 118.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 112.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–6 | Road vs home | 18–96th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−21 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis non-covid illness−40 Elo
Knicks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–31 | 26–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–29 | 24–22 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–1 NY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.