Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints25
- Dante ExumAssists5
- Daniel GaffordRebounds15
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints25
- Payton PritchardAssists6
- Payton PritchardRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–120
- Q40.0Payton Pritchard makes two point shot127–120
- Q41.1Payton Pritchard offensive rebound127–118
- Q42.1Kessler Edwards blocks Payton Pritchard 's 26-foot three point pullup jump shot127–118
- Q47.2Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2127–118
- Q47.2Mavericks offensive team rebound126–118
- Q47.2Max Christie misses free throw 1 of 2126–118
- Q47.2Payton Pritchard personal foul126–118
- Q48.1Payton Pritchard makes driving layup (Drew Peterson assists)126–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:57Spencer Dinwiddie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 63 – 46 BOS · DAL 59% → 67% +8DAL 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q22:10Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotDAL 63 – 49 BOS · BOS 32% → 40% +8BOS 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q21:38Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 65 – 52 BOS · BOS 34% → 42% +8BOS 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q311:04Dante Exum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 72 – 56 BOS · DAL 61% → 70% +8DAL 61% → 70%+8 pts
- Q39:57Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)DAL 75 – 58 BOS · DAL 66% → 74% +8DAL 66% → 74%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML DAL +500 / BOS -700
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.2%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -525
- DAL +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.5 – 123.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1638 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | +29 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +166 Elo | BOS 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 84.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 83.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 117.25th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 108.45th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +8.83rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 117.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 108.26th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 16–911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–26 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 23–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–7 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Jan 25BOS 122 @ DAL 107Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Jun 17DAL 88 @ BOS 106PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- Jun 14BOS 84 @ DAL 122PlayoffsPicked BOS 61%Miss
- Jun 12BOS 106 @ DAL 99PlayoffsPicked BOS 57%Hit
- Jun 9DAL 98 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Jun 6DAL 89 @ BOS 107PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- Mar 1DAL 110 @ BOS 138Picked BOS 67%Hit
- Jan 22BOS 119 @ DAL 110Picked BOS 51%Hit