Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints34
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists13
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–118
- Q43.1Justin Edwards personal take foul116–118
- Q45.1Klay Thompson enters the game for Kessler Edwards116–118
- Q45.1Mavericks Full timeout116–118
- Q45.1Max Christie defensive rebound116–118
- Q45.1Joel Embiid misses free throw 2 of 2116–118
- Q45.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2116–118
- Q45.1Dante Exum personal take foul116–117
- Q410.1Kessler Edwards enters the game for Klay Thompson116–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:09Justin Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)DAL 109 – 110 PHI · PHI 39% → 60% +21PHI 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q43:08Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)DAL 111 – 113 PHI · PHI 45% → 68% +24PHI 45% → 68%+24 pts
- Q42:55Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 114 – 113 PHI · DAL 31% → 56% +25DAL 31% → 56%+25 pts
- Q41:26Naji Marshall makes tip shotDAL 116 – 115 PHI · DAL 36% → 60% +24DAL 36% → 60%+24 pts
- Q422.0Joel Embiid makes layup (Guerschon Yabusele assists)DAL 116 – 117 PHI · PHI 28% → 73% +45PHI 28% → 73%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML DAL +145 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- DAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.0 – 115.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +67 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +50 Elo | PHI 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 109.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 112.715th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −3.623rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 110.121st of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 113.722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 9–1524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+67 Elo- Andre Drummond sore left knee−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–26 | 20–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.