Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints26
- Ja MorantAssists6
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds9
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints34
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Bol BolRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–112
- Q416.0Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound119–112
- Q420.2Bol Bol misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot119–112
- Q425.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2119–112
- Q425.1Tyus Jones enters the game for Royce O'Neale118–112
- Q425.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2118–112
- Q425.1Devin Booker personal take foul117–112
- Q426.0Devin Booker makes layup (Royce O'Neale assists)117–112
- Q427.1Suns Full timeout117–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:44Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 106 – 97 PHX · MEM 82% → 91% +9MEM 82% → 91%+9 pts
- Q43:13Bol Bol makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Devin Booker assists)MEM 110 – 106 PHX · PHX 10% → 19% +9PHX 10% → 19%+9 pts
- Q42:50Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot two point shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 112 – 106 PHX · MEM 82% → 91% +9MEM 82% → 91%+9 pts
- Q42:34Bol Bol makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)MEM 112 – 109 PHX · PHX 8% → 23% +15PHX 8% → 23%+15 pts
- Q42:18Ja Morant makes driving layupMEM 114 – 109 PHX · MEM 78% → 89% +12MEM 78% → 89%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -3.5
- ML MEM -155 / PHX +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3.5
- MEM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 64.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MEM -143
- PHX +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 125.0 – 121.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | −3 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +100 Elo | MEM 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.5 | Points scored | 113.314th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 114.820th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.9 | Margin | −1.619th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 113.79th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 115.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 16–1011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–18 | 19–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–11 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 6–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–18 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–2 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.