Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- John CollinsPoints21
- Isaiah CollierAssists13
- Walker KesslerRebounds22
Suns- Devin BookerPoints47
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Nick RichardsRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game127–135
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime127–135
- OT5.1Grayson Allen defensive rebound127–135
- OT8.1John Collins misses 23-foot three point jumper127–135
- OT19.0Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2127–135
- OT19.0Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2127–134
- OT19.0Lauri Markkanen personal take foul127–133
- OT22.1Keyonte George personal take foul127–133
- OT24.1Walker Kessler makes 3-foot layup (John Collins assists)127–133
- OT30.1Walker Kessler defensive rebound125–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:17Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)UTAH 111 – 114 PHX · PHX 55% → 80% +25PHX 55% → 80%+25 pts
- Q41:15Isaiah Collier makes driving layupUTAH 116 – 114 PHX · UTAH 46% → 71% +25UTAH 46% → 71%+25 pts
- Q41:02Devin Booker makes 14-foot two point shot (Tyus Jones assists)UTAH 116 – 116 PHX · PHX 26% → 53% +27PHX 26% → 53%+27 pts
- Q449.0Walker Kessler makes dunkUTAH 118 – 116 PHX · UTAH 47% → 77% +29UTAH 47% → 77%+29 pts
- Q40.0Grayson Allen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)UTAH 122 – 122 PHX · PHX 0% → 57% +57PHX 0% → 57%+57 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -7.5
- ML UTAH +230 / PHX -280
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 61.2%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -243
- UTAH +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.0 – 119.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −59 | UTAH: Usual rotation · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +79 Elo | PHX 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 70.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 113.014th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 114.420th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.0 | Margin | −1.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 113.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 115.027th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–19 | Road vs home | 15–911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–23 | 18–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 12–20 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–7 PHX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.