Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Bradley BealPoints25
- Bradley BealAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds6
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints50
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–140
- Q43.1shot clock turnover109–140
- Q424.1Jalen Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)109–140
- Q434.2Adam Flagler makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Dillon Jones assists)106–140
- Q453.0Alex Ducas defensive rebound106–138
- Q454.1Oso Ighodaro misses free throw 1 of 1106–138
- Q454.1Kenrich Williams shooting foul106–138
- Q454.1Oso Ighodaro makes two point shot (Collin Gillespie assists)106–138
- Q457.2Dillon Jones lost ball turnover (Bol Bol steals)104–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:37Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 50 – 41 OKC · PHX 33% → 40% +7PHX 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q24:35Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 55 – 45 OKC · PHX 37% → 45% +8PHX 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q23:57Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)PHX 57 – 48 OKC · OKC 49% → 57% +8OKC 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q22:33Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 60 – 50 OKC · PHX 39% → 47% +8PHX 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q230.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 62 – 59 OKC · OKC 62% → 70% +8OKC 62% → 70%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML PHX +550 / OKC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12.5
- OKC 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 88.4%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -578
- PHX +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 108.5 – 121.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1717 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | +32 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | PHX crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +353 Elo | OKC 88.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 83.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 104.41st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +12.11st of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 114.56th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 102.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 21–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–31 | 31–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 30–17 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 0–4 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.