Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints30
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints24
- Tyus JonesAssists10
- Nick RichardsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–105
- Q415.1Bol Bol makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)122–105
- Q432.1Hunter Tyson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trey Alexander assists)122–102
- Q447.2Collin Gillespie makes two point shot119–102
- Q450.2Spencer Jones bad pass (Collin Gillespie steals)119–100
- Q41:00Bol Bol makes dunk119–100
- Q41:13Oso Ighodaro defensive rebound119–98
- Q41:17Trey Alexander misses 25-foot three point shot119–98
- Q41:20Jalen Pickett defensive rebound119–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:52Devin Booker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)DEN 15 – 14 PHX · PHX 25% → 30% +5PHX 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q16:52Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)DEN 15 – 18 PHX · PHX 32% → 39% +6PHX 32% → 39%+6 pts
- Q16:34Julian Strawther makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 18 – 18 PHX · DEN 61% → 68% +6DEN 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q127.1Damion Lee makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bol Bol assists)DEN 35 – 32 PHX · PHX 22% → 27% +6PHX 22% → 27%+6 pts
- Q310:55Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)DEN 65 – 60 PHX · PHX 17% → 24% +6PHX 17% → 24%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML DEN -250 / PHX +205
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6.5
- DEN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 73.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -218
- PHX +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 120.0 – 113.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | −55 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +181 Elo | DEN 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 113.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 114.720th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.9 | Margin | −1.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 113.79th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 115.027th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 16–910th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–26 | 19–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–20 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–21 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.