Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints20
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Desmond BaneRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–112
- Q412.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound125–112
- Q415.2GG Jackson misses two point shot125–112
- Q426.1GG Jackson defensive rebound125–112
- Q430.1Branden Carlson misses 26-foot three point jumper125–112
- Q432.1Kenrich Williams offensive rebound125–112
- Q434.1Aaron Wiggins misses driving layup125–112
- Q449.1Zyon Pullin enters the game for Ja Morant125–112
- Q449.1Ja Morant personal take foul125–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:46Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 7 – 7 MEM · MEM 40% → 47% +6MEM 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q211:23Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Desmond Bane assists)OKC 34 – 29 MEM · MEM 29% → 35% +7MEM 29% → 35%+7 pts
- Q29:49Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three pointerOKC 41 – 33 MEM · OKC 65% → 71% +7OKC 65% → 71%+7 pts
- Q26:13Ja Morant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)OKC 47 – 42 MEM · MEM 28% → 35% +7MEM 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q25:40Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 50 – 42 MEM · OKC 65% → 72% +7OKC 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -1.5
- ML OKC -125 / MEM +105
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 59.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -114
- MEM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 123.0 – 121.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1722 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +64 | +71 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +64 Elo | OKC 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 123.81st of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.5 | Points allowed | 115.423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.4 | Margin | +8.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 116.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.9 | Defense rating | 108.25th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.5 | Pace | 106.71st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–6 | Road vs home | 21–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–19 | 34–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–18 | 24–11 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22 | 34–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–0 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.