Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints21
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists10
- Ochai AgbajiRebounds8
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints27
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Alex CarusoRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–121
- Q418.1Jamison Battle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)109–121
- Q427.1Kenrich Williams out of bounds lost ball turnover106–121
- Q440.1Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)106–121
- Q458.0Branden Carlson makes layup103–121
- Q41:16Ja'Kobe Walter makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Gradey Dick assists)103–119
- Q41:30Dillon Jones makes free throw 2 of 2101–119
- Q41:30Thunder offensive team rebound101–118
- Q41:30Dillon Jones misses free throw 1 of 2101–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:43Jonathan Mogbo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 8 – 6 OKC · TOR 7% → 9% +2TOR 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q27:23Jamison Battle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)TOR 37 – 39 OKC · TOR 6% → 9% +3TOR 6% → 9%+3 pts
- Q26:51Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point shot (Jalen Williams assists)TOR 37 – 44 OKC · OKC 93% → 95% +2OKC 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q39:33Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 55 – 62 OKC · TOR 4% → 6% +2TOR 4% → 6%+2 pts
- Q39:05Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)TOR 55 – 65 OKC · OKC 94% → 96% +2OKC 94% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -18.5
- ML TOR +1300 / OKC -4000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -16
- OKC 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 93.0%, market 93.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1366
- TOR +1366 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 105.5 – 124.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1721 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +87 | TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −22 · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +450 Elo | OKC 93.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 92.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 92.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 93.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.2 | Points scored | 116.96th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 104.51st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−5.6 | Margin | +12.41st of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 115.06th of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 102.81st of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–19 | Road vs home | 22–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−18 Elo- Jakob Poeltl hip pointer−22 Elo
Thunder
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–21 | 32–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 31–17 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–3 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.