Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints23
- Santi AldamaAssists7
- GG JacksonRebounds8
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–128
- Q421.0John Konchar makes 23-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)114–128
- Q430.1Kai Jones makes 6-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kobe Brown assists)111–128
- Q442.1Kobe Brown defensive rebound111–126
- Q444.1Zyon Pullin misses 8-foot two point shot111–126
- Q457.0Jay Huff enters the game for Desmond Bane111–126
- Q457.0John Konchar enters the game for Brandon Clarke111–126
- Q457.0Zyon Pullin enters the game for Santi Aldama111–126
- Q457.0Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Jaylen Wells111–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17.1Santi Aldama makes 23-foot three point shot (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 39 – 28 LAC · MEM 53% → 60% +7MEM 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q211:19Santi Aldama makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (GG Jackson assists)MEM 42 – 30 LAC · MEM 56% → 63% +7MEM 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q24:06Kris Dunn makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)MEM 53 – 54 LAC · LAC 59% → 66% +8LAC 59% → 66%+8 pts
- Q21:05Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)MEM 58 – 61 LAC · LAC 63% → 71% +8LAC 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q310:17Norman Powell makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Kris Dunn assists)MEM 68 – 73 LAC · LAC 68% → 76% +8LAC 68% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -6.5
- ML MEM +200 / LAC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.4 pts
- LAC: Elo 54.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -212
- MEM +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 114.5 – 121.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +45 | +56 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +31 Elo | LAC 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.5 | Points scored | 110.522nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 107.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.9 | Margin | +2.79th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 110.520th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 107.84th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Pace | 99.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 18–109th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–18 | 31–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–11 | 17–9 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 34–19 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–4 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.