Utah Jazz at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints24
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds8
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints26
- James HardenAssists17
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–130
- Q40.1shot clock turnover110–130
- Q424.1Johnny Juzang makes driving layup (Cody Williams assists)110–130
- Q438.0Kobe Brown makes 1-foot dunk (Jordan Miller assists)108–130
- Q451.1Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2108–128
- Q451.1Isaiah Collier makes free throw 1 of 2107–128
- Q451.1Jordan Miller personal foul106–128
- Q458.1Amir Coffey makes 29-foot three point jumper (MarJon Beauchamp assists)106–128
- Q41:12Clippers defensive team rebound106–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:39Svi Mykhailiuk makes 23-foot three pointer (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 71 – 66 LAC · UTAH 25% → 33% +8UTAH 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q49:38Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 93 – 96 LAC · UTAH 10% → 17% +8UTAH 10% → 17%+8 pts
- Q49:24Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)UTAH 93 – 99 LAC · LAC 82% → 90% +8LAC 82% → 90%+8 pts
- Q47:15Jordan Clarkson makes 22-foot three point shot (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 101 – 103 LAC · UTAH 12% → 22% +10UTAH 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q46:46Ivica Zubac makes layup (James Harden assists)UTAH 101 – 105 LAC · LAC 78% → 85% +7LAC 78% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -17.5
- ML UTAH +900 / LAC -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -12.5
- LAC 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 88.3%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -947
- UTAH +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 104.0 – 121.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −101 | +49 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +351 Elo | LAC 88.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 91.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 91.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 110.124th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 107.73rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +2.49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 110.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 107.84th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 17–1011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–24 | 30–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 16–9 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 21–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–4 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.