Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints26
- Shaedon SharpeAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds20
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints55
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–132
- Q418.1Anfernee Simons lost ball turnover (Zeke Nnaji steals)121–132
- Q425.0Nikola Jokic makes 11-foot jumper (Zeke Nnaji assists)121–132
- Q439.0Toumani Camara makes 1-foot dunk (Anfernee Simons assists)121–130
- Q441.2Anfernee Simons defensive rebound119–130
- Q444.1Jamal Murray misses 26-foot three point jumper119–130
- Q41:03Donovan Clingan makes alley oop layup (Shaedon Sharpe assists)119–130
- Q41:12Jamal Murray makes 15-foot two point shot117–130
- Q41:25Christian Braun defensive rebound117–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:46Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)POR 3 – 0 DEN · POR 22% → 27% +5POR 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q110:17Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 8 – 2 DEN · POR 28% → 33% +6POR 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q19:49Zeke Nnaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)POR 8 – 5 DEN · DEN 66% → 72% +6DEN 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q19:15Kris Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 11 – 7 DEN · POR 25% → 30% +5POR 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q18:40Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 11 – 10 DEN · DEN 70% → 75% +5DEN 70% → 75%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML POR +330 / DEN -425
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7
- DEN 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 74.8%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -348
- POR +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.5 – 120.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | +3 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +189 Elo | DEN 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 121.33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 115.824th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.5 | Margin | +5.66th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 118.23rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–18 | Road vs home | 18–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+11 Elo- Robert Williams III right knee soreness−8 Elo
Nuggets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–23 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 21–20 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–5 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.