Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints21
- Anfernee SimonsAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds14
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints30
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–114
- Q422.1Rudy Gobert defensive rebound98–114
- Q426.0Deni Avdija misses 22-foot three point jumper98–114
- Q433.1Rudy Gobert makes dunk (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)98–114
- Q441.1Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 298–112
- Q441.1Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 297–112
- Q441.1Rudy Gobert loose ball foul96–112
- Q443.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound96–112
- Q443.1Scoot Henderson misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot96–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:31Jaylen Clark makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)POR 86 – 82 MIN · MIN 25% → 37% +12MIN 25% → 37%+12 pts
- Q48:56Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 89 – 85 MIN · POR 51% → 65% +14POR 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q47:14Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 91 – 90 MIN · MIN 33% → 48% +15MIN 33% → 48%+15 pts
- Q46:48Jaden McDaniels makes 4-foot running pullup jump shotPOR 91 – 92 MIN · MIN 48% → 59% +11MIN 48% → 59%+11 pts
- Q45:38Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 93 – 96 MIN · MIN 53% → 70% +17MIN 53% → 70%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML POR +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- POR +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 104.5 – 108.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | −55 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Missing Mike Conley −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +90 Elo | MIN 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 111.719th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 108.24th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.9 | Margin | +3.58th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 112.713th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 109.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 14–1216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−55 Elo- Mike Conley sprained right finger−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–21 | 22–30 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 31–18 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–5 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.