Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints20
- Jevon CarterAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints49
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–127
- Q40.1shot clock turnover108–127
- Q424.1Leonard Miller makes layup (Rob Dillingham assists)108–127
- Q431.1Leonard Miller defensive rebound108–125
- Q434.1Patrick Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper108–125
- Q442.0Julian Phillips defensive rebound108–125
- Q444.1Julian Phillips blocks Terrence Shannon Jr. 's 6-foot driving layup108–125
- Q457.1Josh Minott defensive rebound108–125
- Q459.0Matas Buzelis misses free throw 2 of 2108–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:14Josh Giddey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 76 – 77 MIN · CHI 18% → 26% +7CHI 18% → 26%+7 pts
- Q34:08Jevon Carter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 82 – 79 MIN · CHI 30% → 40% +10CHI 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q33:51Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)CHI 82 – 82 MIN · MIN 60% → 70% +10MIN 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q31:29Jaylen Clark makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)CHI 86 – 90 MIN · MIN 72% → 81% +9MIN 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q410:03Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)CHI 92 – 99 MIN · MIN 81% → 89% +8MIN 81% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10.5
- ML CHI +425 / MIN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8.5
- MIN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.2%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -455
- CHI +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 108.0 – 118.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −14 | CHI: Usual rotation · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +232 Elo | MIN 79.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 78.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 111.121st of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 108.04th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.1 | Margin | +3.08th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 108.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.8 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–26 | 20–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 12–26 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.