Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints23
- Tyler HerroAssists9
- Kel'el WareRebounds12
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints24
- Ayo DosunmuAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–133
- Q422.0Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound124–133
- Q424.1Bam Adebayo misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot124–133
- Q427.0Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2124–133
- Q427.0Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2124–132
- Q427.0Duncan Robinson personal take foul124–131
- Q432.1Nikola Jovic makes driving layup124–131
- Q436.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2122–131
- Q436.1Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2122–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:17Josh Giddey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)MIA 114 – 114 CHI · CHI 30% → 47% +16CHI 30% → 47%+16 pts
- Q44:45Nikola Vucevic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)MIA 118 – 117 CHI · CHI 23% → 41% +17CHI 23% → 41%+17 pts
- Q43:46Josh Giddey makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotMIA 118 – 121 CHI · CHI 55% → 69% +14CHI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q43:25Bam Adebayo makes 17-foot jumperMIA 120 – 121 CHI · MIA 30% → 45% +15MIA 30% → 45%+15 pts
- Q43:08Nikola Vucevic makes two point shotMIA 120 – 123 CHI · CHI 56% → 71% +15CHI 56% → 71%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -3.5
- ML MIA -160 / CHI +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- MIA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -145
- CHI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.0 – 112.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −1 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +21 Elo | MIA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 116.56th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 119.929th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −3.422nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 110.916th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 114.124th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 104.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 9–1625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–28 | 23–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 7–13 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders | 26–21 | 23–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.