Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints22
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints30
- Scoot HendersonAssists8
- Toumani CamaraRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–108
- Q413.0Zach LaVine makes 1-foot driving dunk102–108
- Q418.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2100–108
- Q418.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 2100–107
- Q418.1Zach LaVine personal take foul100–106
- Q436.0Zach LaVine makes free throw 2 of 2100–106
- Q436.0Deni Avdija enters the game for Deandre Ayton99–106
- Q436.0Kings offensive team rebound99–106
- Q436.0Zach LaVine misses free throw 1 of 299–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:41Zach LaVine makes 22-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 88 – 90 POR · SAC 26% → 41% +14SAC 26% → 41%+14 pts
- Q44:31Toumani Camara makes driving dunk (Scoot Henderson assists)SAC 93 – 96 POR · POR 56% → 69% +13POR 56% → 69%+13 pts
- Q43:25Jerami Grant makes 1-foot two point shot (Deandre Ayton assists)SAC 94 – 98 POR · POR 65% → 78% +13POR 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q42:29DeMar DeRozan makes 10-foot two point shotSAC 96 – 98 POR · SAC 18% → 33% +14SAC 18% → 33%+14 pts
- Q42:13Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three pointerSAC 96 – 101 POR · POR 68% → 88% +20POR 68% → 88%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -1.5
- ML SAC -120 / POR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -4
- SAC 34%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.3 pts
- SAC: Elo 33.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -109
- POR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 116.0 – 114.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | +44 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +116 Elo | POR 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 109.126th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 114.118th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −5.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 108.825th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 113.823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.019th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 14–1319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–30 | 30–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 30–18 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–2 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.