Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints28
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints41
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Naz ReidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–127
- Q40.0Jaden McDaniels makes driving layup114–127
- Q48.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound114–125
- Q412.0Cam Whitmore misses driving floating jump shot114–125
- Q416.0Cam Whitmore defensive rebound114–125
- Q419.0Anthony Edwards misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot114–125
- Q437.0Timberwolves Full timeout114–125
- Q437.0Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2114–125
- Q437.0Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2113–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:09Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 102 – 105 MIN · MIN 51% → 66% +16MIN 51% → 66%+16 pts
- Q46:16Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot driving dunkHOU 106 – 105 MIN · HOU 43% → 55% +11HOU 43% → 55%+11 pts
- Q45:58Jaden McDaniels makes 12-foot two point shot (Anthony Edwards assists)HOU 106 – 107 MIN · MIN 45% → 57% +12MIN 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q44:27Anthony Edwards makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotHOU 106 – 109 MIN · MIN 57% → 70% +13MIN 57% → 70%+13 pts
- Q43:47Anthony Edwards makes 29-foot three pointer (Jaden McDaniels assists)HOU 106 – 113 MIN · MIN 78% → 91% +13MIN 78% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -0.5
- ML HOU +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 107.0 – 107.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −6 | HOU: Missing Fred VanVleet −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 111.420th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 108.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +3.38th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 109.07th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–9 | Road vs home | 13–1217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+14 Elo- Fred VanVleet sprained right ankle−7 Elo
Timberwolves
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–21 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 13–26 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–23 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.