Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints22
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds7
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints40
- Jalen PickettAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–146
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound117–146
- Q40.0Dalano Banton misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot117–146
- Q43.0shot clock turnover117–146
- Q427.1Dalano Banton makes free throw 2 of 2117–146
- Q427.1Dalano Banton makes free throw 1 of 2116–146
- Q427.1Trey Alexander shooting foul115–146
- Q436.1PJ Hall makes dunk (Jalen Pickett assists)115–146
- Q443.1Jalen Pickett defensive rebound115–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:07Anfernee Simons makes 23-foot three point jumperPOR 5 – 6 DEN · POR 17% → 21% +4POR 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q19:39Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)POR 5 – 9 DEN · DEN 79% → 83% +4DEN 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q258.2Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Christian Braun assists)POR 55 – 66 DEN · DEN 87% → 91% +4DEN 87% → 91%+4 pts
- Q310:23Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR 62 – 72 DEN · POR 7% → 10% +3POR 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q39:38Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three pointerPOR 67 – 74 DEN · POR 10% → 15% +5POR 10% → 15%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML POR +330 / DEN -425
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5.5
- DEN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 70.8%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -348
- POR +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 110.5 – 120.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +15 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +154 Elo | DEN 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 120.93rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 115.724th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.1 | Margin | +5.16th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 117.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 17–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+37 Elo- Robert Williams III right knee soreness−7 Elo
Nuggets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–22 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 20–20 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–4 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.