LA Clippers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints31
- James HardenAssists11
- James HardenRebounds7
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints29
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–129
- Q45.2Thomas Bryant defensive rebound111–129
- Q410.0Drew Eubanks misses 23-foot three point jumper111–129
- Q423.0shot clock turnover111–129
- Q445.2Obi Toppin defensive rebound111–129
- Q450.0Patty Mills misses 26-foot three point jumper111–129
- Q41:09Thomas Bryant makes layup (Jarace Walker assists)111–129
- Q41:26MarJon Beauchamp makes 24-foot three pointer111–127
- Q41:34Thomas Bryant makes 2-foot driving dunk108–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:47James Harden makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 6 – 7 IND · LAC 32% → 38% +6LAC 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q17:07Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)LAC 8 – 12 IND · IND 62% → 68% +6IND 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q16:03James Harden makes 29-foot three pointer (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 13 – 15 IND · LAC 30% → 36% +6LAC 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q25:52Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)LAC 38 – 47 IND · IND 72% → 79% +6IND 72% → 79%+6 pts
- Q24:05James Harden makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 44 – 49 IND · LAC 23% → 30% +7LAC 23% → 30%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML LAC +140 / IND -165
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- IND: Elo 68.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -149
- LAC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.5 – 115.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +8 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +136 Elo | IND 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.9 | Points scored | 116.29th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 115.621st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +0.715th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 114.07th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 113.421st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 15–810th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–23 | 26–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–11 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.