LA Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints23
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–116
- Q411.0Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 30-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)110–116
- Q417.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2107–116
- Q417.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2107–115
- Q417.1Amir Coffey personal foul107–114
- Q417.1James Harden bad pass (Brook Lopez steals)107–114
- Q420.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2107–114
- Q420.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2107–113
- Q420.0Kris Dunn personal foul107–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:25Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)LAC 101 – 104 MIL · MIL 49% → 67% +18MIL 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q44:51Kris Dunn makes 27-foot three pointer (James Harden assists)LAC 104 – 104 MIL · LAC 32% → 51% +19LAC 32% → 51%+19 pts
- Q43:02Brook Lopez makes driving layup (Taurean Prince assists)LAC 104 – 106 MIL · MIL 49% → 65% +16MIL 49% → 65%+16 pts
- Q41:14Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 107 – 109 MIL · LAC 5% → 26% +21LAC 5% → 26%+21 pts
- Q458.0Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)LAC 107 – 112 MIL · MIL 76% → 97% +20MIL 76% → 97%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML LAC -125 / MIL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- LAC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 45.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.5 – 113.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −7 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +34 Elo | MIL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.0 | Points scored | 114.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 112.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +1.711th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 112.612th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 111.010th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 17–98th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−7 Elo- Bobby Portis suspended by league−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–22 | 25–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–10 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.