LA Clippers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints41
- James HardenAssists7
- James HardenRebounds10
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints20
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game120–116
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime120–116
- OT6.1Nicolas Batum defensive rebound120–116
- OT10.0Keyonte George misses running pullup jump shot120–116
- OT14.2John Collins defensive rebound120–116
- OT16.1Norman Powell misses free throw 2 of 2120–116
- OT16.1Ben Simmons enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic120–116
- OT16.1Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2120–116
- OT16.1(00:16.7) [Clippers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)119–116
- OT16.1Isaiah Collier personal foul119–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:58James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 103 – 100 UTAH · LAC 60% → 76% +16LAC 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q445.1Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2LAC 108 – 108 UTAH · UTAH 30% → 46% +16UTAH 30% → 46%+16 pts
- OT4:03Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)LAC 113 – 110 UTAH · LAC 59% → 78% +19LAC 59% → 78%+19 pts
- OT1:34Svi Mykhailiuk makes 4-foot driving dunkLAC 115 – 114 UTAH · UTAH 16% → 34% +18UTAH 16% → 34%+18 pts
- OT1:28Norman Powell makes driving layupLAC 117 – 114 UTAH · LAC 67% → 85% +18LAC 67% → 85%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML LAC -425 / UTAH +325
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 69.0%, market 77.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -344
- UTAH +344 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 120.0 – 110.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | UTAH and LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −43 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Walker Kessler −24, KJ Martin −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +139 Elo | LAC 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 76.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 77.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.8 | Points scored | 112.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 119.427th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −7.128th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 110.222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 117.229th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 6–1829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−43 Elo- Walker Kessler left thumb−24 Elo
- KJ Martin return to competition reconditioning−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–21 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 5–2 UTAH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.