Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Rui HachimuraPoints19
- Austin ReavesAssists11
- Alex LenRebounds7
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints32
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists10
- Jordan ClarksonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–131
- Q415.1Bronny James makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot119–131
- Q433.1Johnny Juzang makes 23-foot three point jumper116–131
- Q449.1Jordan Goodwin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)116–128
- Q459.0Shake Milton defensive rebound113–128
- Q41:02Johnny Juzang misses 23-foot three point jumper113–128
- Q41:18Jazz defensive team rebound113–128
- Q41:18Markieff Morris misses 25-foot three point jumper113–128
- Q41:19Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound113–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:31Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 59 – 66 UTAH · LAL 41% → 50% +9LAL 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q311:01Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three pointer (Jordan Clarkson assists)LAL 59 – 69 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 59% +9UTAH 51% → 59%+9 pts
- Q39:10Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)LAL 63 – 74 UTAH · UTAH 55% → 64% +9UTAH 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q38:27LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 66 – 74 UTAH · LAL 35% → 44% +9LAL 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q37:59Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 69 – 74 UTAH · LAL 43% → 53% +10LAL 43% → 53%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML LAL -400 / UTAH +320
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -10.5
- LAL 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 83.9%, market 77.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -336
- UTAH +336 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 123.0 – 113.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +78 | −16 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing KJ Martin −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | LAL crossed 1 time zone and UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +287 Elo | LAL 83.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 77.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 111.919th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 119.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −7.528th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 109.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 117.229th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 5–1829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−16 Elo- KJ Martin return to competition reconditioning−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–22 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 5–1 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.