Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- John CollinsPoints17
- Isaiah CollierAssists10
- Walker KesslerRebounds12
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints24
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Austin ReavesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–132
- Q48.1shot clock turnover113–132
- Q429.1Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound113–132
- Q435.1Johnny Juzang misses 28-foot three point jumper113–132
- Q444.1shot clock turnover113–132
- Q458.1Elijah Harkless personal foul113–132
- Q41:09Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 1113–132
- Q41:09Trey Jemison III shooting foul112–132
- Q41:09Trey Jemison III defensive goaltending violation112–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:12Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)UTAH 5 – 6 LAL · UTAH 12% → 15% +3UTAH 12% → 15%+3 pts
- Q19:14John Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 8 – 6 LAL · UTAH 15% → 20% +4UTAH 15% → 20%+4 pts
- Q18:36Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)UTAH 10 – 11 LAL · LAL 80% → 84% +4LAL 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q18:05Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 10 – 14 LAL · LAL 84% → 88% +4LAL 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q13:54Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 19 – 27 LAL · LAL 88% → 91% +3LAL 88% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -12.5
- ML UTAH +500 / LAL -700
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -11
- LAL 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 85.3%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -525
- UTAH +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.5 – 124.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +31 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +306 Elo | LAL 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 83.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 83.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 112.817th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 112.113th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +0.713th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 113.211th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 112.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 99.422nd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 26th of 307–21 | Road vs home | 18–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–25 | 28–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 25–24 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–4 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.