Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints39
- Joel EmbiidAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints43
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Bobby PortisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–135
- Q420.0Jared Butler makes driving layup127–135
- Q426.1AJ Green makes free throw 2 of 2125–135
- Q426.1AJ Green makes free throw 1 of 2125–134
- Q426.1Guerschon Yabusele personal foul125–133
- Q428.0Jared Butler makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot125–133
- Q435.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2122–133
- Q435.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2122–132
- Q435.1Quentin Grimes personal foul122–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:53Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 73 – 81 MIL · MIL 60% → 69% +9MIL 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q36:36Joel Embiid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 76 – 81 MIL · PHI 30% → 40% +9PHI 30% → 40%+9 pts
- Q34:08AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)PHI 81 – 90 MIL · MIL 65% → 75% +9MIL 65% → 75%+9 pts
- Q32:52Guerschon Yabusele makes 26-foot three point jumper (Eric Gordon assists)PHI 86 – 90 MIL · PHI 30% → 41% +10PHI 30% → 41%+10 pts
- Q32:38Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 86 – 93 MIL · MIL 59% → 70% +10MIL 59% → 70%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML PHI -165 / MIL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 116.0 – 112.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −97 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 113.812th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 112.011th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.7 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 110.910th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 16–86th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–31 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22 | 25–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 0–5 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.