Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints27
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds11
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints36
- Jalen DurenAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–125
- Q421.1Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Tobias Harris112–125
- Q421.1Ronald Holland II enters the game for Malik Beasley112–125
- Q421.1shot clock turnover112–125
- Q445.1Ricky Council IV makes 24-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)112–125
- Q447.0Quentin Grimes offensive rebound109–125
- Q450.0Quentin Grimes misses 11-foot two point shot109–125
- Q459.1Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Paul Reed assists)109–125
- Q41:07Justin Edwards lost ball turnover (Marcus Sasser steals)109–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:37Malik Beasley makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Duren assists)PHI 8 – 16 DET · DET 44% → 51% +7DET 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q11:36Quentin Grimes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 25 – 35 DET · PHI 35% → 42% +7PHI 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q159.1Ronald Holland II makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)PHI 27 – 39 DET · DET 56% → 63% +7DET 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q10.1Marcus Sasser makes 29-foot three pointer (Ronald Holland II assists)PHI 27 – 42 DET · DET 63% → 70% +7DET 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q29:44Isaiah Stewart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)PHI 33 – 48 DET · DET 65% → 71% +7DET 65% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML PHI -230 / DET +190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.4%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -202
- DET +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.5 – 108.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +63 | −10 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 112.716th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 113.817th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.6 | Margin | −1.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 110.618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 12–1321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−10 Elo- Cade Cunningham right ankle sprain−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–30 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–1 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.