Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints30
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–101
- Q40.0Heat defensive team rebound108–101
- Q42.1Tyrese Maxey misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot108–101
- Q49.1Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2108–101
- Q49.1Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 2107–101
- Q49.1Tyrese Maxey personal take foul106–101
- Q412.0Heat Full timeout106–101
- Q412.0Paul George personal take foul106–101
- Q414.0Pelle Larsson defensive rebound106–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:30Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 71 – 66 PHI · MIA 54% → 64% +10MIA 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q34:35Tyler Herro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 77 – 70 PHI · MIA 61% → 71% +10MIA 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q47:24Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)MIA 95 – 90 PHI · PHI 15% → 27% +11PHI 15% → 27%+11 pts
- Q44:19Paul George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Eric Gordon assists)MIA 97 – 93 PHI · PHI 12% → 25% +14PHI 12% → 25%+14 pts
- Q42:47Pelle Larsson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 100 – 93 PHI · MIA 80% → 93% +13MIA 80% → 93%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML MIA +110 / PHI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.5 – 111.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHI and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −13 | −21 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −81 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.0 | Points scored | 109.225th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 112.715th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −3.523rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 110.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 113.822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 98.127th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 10–1524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−21 Elo- Joel Embiid left knee injury management−81 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–29 | 20–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 7–13 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.