Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints38
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds9
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints38
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Taurean PrinceRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–111
- Q422.1Pat Spencer defensive rebound124–111
- Q423.1Gary Trent Jr. misses running pullup jump shot124–111
- Q428.1Taurean Prince defensive rebound124–111
- Q430.1Jackson Rowe misses 27-foot three point jumper124–111
- Q440.1Pat Spencer defensive rebound124–111
- Q442.1Taurean Prince misses 24-foot three point jumper124–111
- Q451.1Jackson Rowe makes layup (Pat Spencer assists)124–111
- Q41:03Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 2 of 2122–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:20Ryan Rollins makes 14-foot step back jumpshotGS 25 – 25 MIL · MIL 24% → 32% +8MIL 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q35:33Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)GS 72 – 69 MIL · GS 62% → 72% +9GS 62% → 72%+9 pts
- Q34:24AJ Green makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 74 – 75 MIL · MIL 31% → 41% +10MIL 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q49:54Quinten Post makes 23-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)GS 95 – 90 MIL · GS 68% → 79% +11GS 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q49:35Quinten Post makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 98 – 90 MIL · GS 79% → 88% +9GS 79% → 88%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML GS -270 / MIL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- GS: Elo 58.9%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -234
- MIL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 119.0 – 111.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −98 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +62 Elo | GS 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 114.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 112.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.011th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 113.012th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 111.110th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 17–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–26 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.