Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints34
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists7
- Gui SantosRebounds8
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints27
- Matas BuzelisAssists5
- Josh GiddeyRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–111
- Q411.0Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound132–111
- Q412.1Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Jevon Carter 's 23-foot three point pullup jump shot132–111
- Q425.1Jevon Carter defensive rebound132–111
- Q427.1Pat Spencer misses driving layup132–111
- Q433.1Dalen Terry makes 4-foot layup (Jevon Carter assists)132–111
- Q443.0Jackson Rowe makes two point shot (Pat Spencer assists)132–109
- Q448.1Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound130–109
- Q450.2Jevon Carter misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot130–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:13Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 85 – 91 CHI · GS 29% → 39% +10GS 29% → 39%+10 pts
- Q32:08Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 90 – 92 CHI · GS 41% → 53% +11GS 41% → 53%+11 pts
- Q31:33Jimmy Butler makes tip shotGS 92 – 93 CHI · GS 49% → 56% +8GS 49% → 56%+8 pts
- Q31:11Stephen Curry makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 94 – 93 CHI · GS 56% → 64% +8GS 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q314.1Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 97 – 93 CHI · GS 64% → 74% +11GS 64% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML GS -250 / CHI +205
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- GS: Elo 56.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- GS -218
- CHI +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 123.0 – 116.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −17 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +48 Elo | GS 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 116.77th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 120.129th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −3.422nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 111.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 114.525th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 10–1624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–26 | 24–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.