Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Gary Trent Jr.Points21
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists5
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds13
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Terrence Shannon Jr.Assists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–101
- Q43.1Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound103–101
- Q43.1Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot103–101
- Q410.2Brook Lopez makes free throw 2 of 2103–101
- Q410.2Brook Lopez makes free throw 1 of 2102–101
- Q410.2Rudy Gobert shooting foul101–101
- Q429.1Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound101–101
- Q432.1Anthony Edwards misses 18-foot pullup jump shot101–101
- Q438.1Kevin Porter Jr. makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot101–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:56Gary Trent Jr. makes 22-foot three point shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIL 95 – 92 MIN · MIL 41% → 63% +21MIL 41% → 63%+21 pts
- Q41:50Naz Reid makes 1-foot two point shotMIL 99 – 98 MIN · MIN 26% → 45% +20MIN 26% → 45%+20 pts
- Q447.1Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIL 99 – 101 MIN · MIN 38% → 82% +44MIN 38% → 82%+44 pts
- Q438.1Kevin Porter Jr. makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotMIL 101 – 101 MIN · MIL 16% → 47% +30MIL 16% → 47%+30 pts
- Q410.2Brook Lopez makes free throw 1 of 2MIL 102 – 101 MIN · MIL 48% → 80% +31MIL 48% → 80%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -9.5
- ML MIL +330 / MIN -425
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10
- MIN 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 83.3%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -348
- MIL +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 104.5 – 114.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −161 | −11 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +279 Elo | MIN 83.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 77.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 77.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 111.620th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 108.35th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +3.38th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 112.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 109.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 15–1215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−161 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–29 | 23–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–21 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.