Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints44
- Naz ReidAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds8
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints28
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–128
- Q44.1Tristan Thompson defensive rebound107–128
- Q45.1Tristan Thompson blocks Leonard Miller 's 2-foot layup107–128
- Q45.2Tristen Newton offensive rebound107–128
- Q46.1Tristen Newton misses two point shot107–128
- Q411.0Josh Minott offensive rebound107–128
- Q414.1Terrence Shannon Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–128
- Q422.1Leonard Miller defensive rebound107–128
- Q425.1Emoni Bates misses 18-foot jumper107–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:49Evan Mobley makes two point shotMIN 0 – 2 CLE · CLE 75% → 78% +3CLE 75% → 78%+3 pts
- Q19:24Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIN 0 – 4 CLE · CLE 78% → 81% +3CLE 78% → 81%+3 pts
- Q18:20Evan Mobley makes two point shotMIN 0 – 6 CLE · CLE 81% → 84% +3CLE 81% → 84%+3 pts
- Q17:35Donovan Mitchell makes 14-foot two point shotMIN 0 – 8 CLE · CLE 84% → 86% +3CLE 84% → 86%+3 pts
- Q15:18Sam Merrill makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jarrett Allen assists)MIN 0 – 16 CLE · CLE 91% → 94% +2CLE 91% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML MIN +285 / CLE -370
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5.5
- CLE 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 70.2%, market 75.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -303
- MIN +303 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.0 – 118.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1622 | 1644 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +79 | MIN: Usual rotation · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +149 Elo | CLE 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 75.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 122.42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 112.111th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +10.32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 120.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.7 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 24–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–30 | 33–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 30–17 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 29–24 | 34–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.